编号：时间：2021年x月x日书山有路勤为径，学海无涯苦作舟页码：第PAGE60页共NUMPAGES60页第PAGE\*MERGEFORMAT60页共NUMPAGES\*MERGEFORMAT60页No.C20000032000-02-28我国棉花对外贸易为何“贱卖贵买”？——棉花价格干预，供求波动与贸易效率的关系北京大学中国经济研究中心：卢锋NO.C2000003;日期：2000年2月28日内容简介本文研究了我国棉花对外贸易缺乏效率现象及根源，有三点发现：第一，比较研究世界10个最大棉花贸易实体1978年以来棉花进出口贸易与国际棉价变化的关系，发现我国棉花对外贸易具有最为显著的“贱卖贵买”特征。第二，棉花流通和价格管制政策放大供求波动是导致棉花贸易“贱卖贵买”现象的关键原因，因而，国内棉花流通市场化改革长期滞后是问题的深层体制根源。第三，“松时放，紧时收”和“计划观念建市场”思维模式对推进棉花市场化改革产生了不利影响，对此进行反思调整是新一轮棉改成功的关键。棉花政策个案经验有两点超出棉花领域的启示含义：一是在经济政策指导思路上可能需要重新思考“控制经济”的理念；二是应当改进我国现行经济政策研究的方法和体制。关键词：棉花贸易，棉花流通改革，价格干预，政策研究体制WhydoesChina’scottontradebuydearandsellcheap------Priceregulation,marketfluctuationandtradeperformance:AcasestudyontheChinesecottonpolicySummaryThispaperstudiesChina’scottontradeperformanceandinvestigateswhyhastheChinesecottontradebeeninefficient.Ityieldsthreemajorfindings.(1)Thecomparativeanalysisofthecottontradeperformancefor10biggestcottontradingcountriesandregionsduringthelast20yearsorsoprovidesstrongevidencesindicatingthatChina’scottontradesellscheapandbuysdear.AclearpatternhasbeenobservedthatChinausuallytakesapositionasanetcottonexporterandexportsmorewhiletheworldmarketcottonpriceisrelativelylowandtakesapositionasanetimporterandimportmorewhilethepriceishigh.(2)Thisinefficienttradepatternismainlycausedbyamechanismthroughwhichthesystemofstatemonopolyandpriceinterventiononcottonamplifiesthefluctuationofdomesticdemandforandsupplyofcotton,leadingtotheunusuallargefluctuationincottonstocksandtradeforChina.Theprobleminthetradeareaisthereforedeeplyrootedinthelongdelayinthemarket-orientedreforminthedomesticcottondistributionsystem.(3)Twoproblemsinthetraditionalcottonreformstrategyhavebeenmainlyresponsibletothedelayinthemarket-orientedreforminthedomesticcottondistributionsystem.Thestoryofcottonpolicyimpliestwolessons:First,itisnecessarytoreconsiderthetraditionalideaof“controllingeconomy”thatisanelementofthewidelyacceptedparadigmof“macroadjustmentandcontrol”intheChineseeconomicpolicyformationinthe1990