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瑞穗证券的月度报告(1).pdf

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MizuhoSecuritiesMonthlyMonitorMay2004CONTENTS1.FinancialMarketForecastsForecastsMay2004toSeptember20042.NearTermScenarioforJapaneseEconomyandInterestRates3.Introduction3.1Changeinthebiasshiftingfroma‘graceperiod’toa‘periodofpreparation’–MarkettrendsreflectingawarenessofJGBmanagementpolicy4.MacroEconomicAnalysis4.1JapaneseEconomy-PositiveandNegativeFactorsAffectingDemand5.MarketAnalysis5.1BondMarket6.EconomicForecastsforJapan7.MizuhoSecurities’WorldEconomicView8.ScheduleofEconomicEvents(MayandJune2004)ThisreportisbasedonareportpreparedinJapanesebyTheFixedIncomeResearchDepartmentofMizuhoSecuritiesCo.,Ltd.FixedIncomeResearchDepartmentPleaserefertotheendofthisresearchreportforrelevantinformation.May20041.FINANCIALMARKETFORECASTSFinancialMarketForecasts(May–Sep2004)May–Jun2004Jul–Sep2004JGByieldsRange1.30%-1.65%1.20%-1.65%(10year)WhileprofittakingisexpectedaheadTheintensificationofexpectationsforoftheendofthequarterwhenthereisaafutureeconomicslowdownwillhaveriseinthemarket,demandondipsanimpactonthebondmarkets.shouldemergewhenthemarketfalls.TherewillbeatendencytotakeThemarketshouldberangebound.profitsaheadofthefinalinterimresultsTurmoilcouldarisefromthepressurespriortotheterminationoftheblanketofdemandtobuybackthefutures.guaranteeondeposits(payoff).Closeattentionwillbenecessary.USGovtRange4.30%-4.90%4.10%-4.70%BondYieldsTherecoveryinemploymentandriseThewaningimpactfromtaxcutswill(10year)intherateofinflationleadtostrongleadtoincreasedconcernabouttheUSexpectationsofanearlyratehikebuteconomicoutlook.Interestrateswilllongterminterestrateshavealreadycomeunderincreaseddownwardfactoredinsuccessiveratehikes.pressure.ThedebateabouttheemploymentAcorrectionoftheweakUS$willsituationwillheatupaheadofthecauseoverseasinvestorstobecomepresidentialelections.However,radicalmoreactivetowardsUS$denominatedreformswillbeunlikelygiventhedifficultyassets.ofincreasingthefiscaldeficit.StockMarketRange10,000–12,0009,000–11,000(Nikkei2